https://t.co/HB3Tgo028f
Manifold
Social prediction market platform using virtual Mana currency, founded in 2021
3.6/ 5
Our score
Good
Market types
PoliticsSportsCryptoEconomics+2
Settles in
Mana (virtual play currency)
Trading fees
10% x amount_traded x (1 - max_price_per_share_bought)
Available in the US
Yes
Regulated venue
No
KYC required
No
What is Manifold?
Manifold is an online social prediction platform where participants forecast news, politics, artificial intelligence, science, and personal events using a virtual currency called Mana. The platform runs an automated market maker forecasting model, and any participant can create a market.
Team and funding
Founded in December 2021 by Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, and Austin Chen, Manifold is based in San Francisco, United States. Stephen Grugett acts as Chief Executive Officer, while James Grugett studied at Carnegie Mellon University. Seed backers include the Survival and Flourishing Fund, which committed $340,000, alongside early funding linked to the FTX Future Fund and Astral Codex Ten.
How trading works
New participants receive 1,000 free Mana upon signing up via Google or Apple accounts without mandatory KYC identity checks. Trading takes place in Mana, which cannot be redeemed for fiat cash. Users earn additional Mana through correct predictions, quests, popular market creation, and referrals. Standard binary yes-and-no markets apply a dynamic trading fee structure equal to 10% multiplied by the traded volume and the inverted maximum share purchase price.
Platform reach and track record
In September 2023, Manifold launched its inaugural annual forecasting gathering, Manifest, in Berkeley, California. By January 2026, daily active usage reached approximately 2,000 participants. Across the 2024 US presidential election cycle, the platform recorded a 0.0342 Brier score.
Operational risks and resolution
Because Manifold relies on market creators rather than decentralized oracles to settle outcomes, unresolved disputes represent a key operational friction. The platform operates outside formal gambling and financial securities licensing regimes due to its play-money design, meaning users have no regulatory investor protections or guaranteed claims if the operating entity discontinues service.
Founders
Stephen GrugettChief Executive Officer
James GrugettCo-founder
Attended Carnegie Mellon University.
Austin ChenChief Product Officer
Best for:Casual forecasters testing predictive calibrationCommunity organizers hosting custom wagersUsers who want to forecast without real-money stakes
Pros and cons
Pros
- Free registration includes a starting grant of 1,000 Mana
- Open market creation lets any user propose custom questions
- No mandatory KYC verification required for standard forecasting
- Available globally as a play-money prediction platform
Cons
- Market creators handle resolutions, introducing subjectivity and dispute risk
- Mana play currency cannot be withdrawn or converted to fiat cash
- Lack of real cash payouts
- Unregulated venue with no statutory investor protections
Our review
3.6/5
Good
Manifold offers free-to-play market creation across many topics, using Mana and creator-settled resolutions rather than real-money settlements.
Manifold launched in December 2021 as a social prediction platform where users forecast outcomes using a virtual play-money currency named Mana. Founded by Austin Chen, Stephen Grugett, and James Grugett, the San Francisco-based venue lets anyone create a market using virtual Mana. In 2024, its crowd calibration reached a 0.0342 Brier score on the US presidential election, trailing Polymarket's 0.0296.
Users trade on politics, technology, science, and personal topics. Account setup requires no mandatory identity verification, granting immediate global access including in the United States. New signups receive 1,000 Mana, eliminating financial barriers to entry. On standard yes/no markets, trading fees follow a formula of 10% multiplied by the trade amount and the unsold share discount, paid directly in Mana.
- Outcomes are resolved primarily by market creators rather than neutral third-party oracles, creating dispute risks on ambiguous questions.
- Mana cannot be converted into cash, leaving financial traders without direct monetary payouts.
- Peak daily active usage was approximately 2,000 participants in January 2026.
Early financial backing included grants and seed investments from the FTX Future Fund ($1.5M) and the Survival and Flourishing Fund ($340,000). Manifold operates outside traditional securities and gambling regulation by using virtual play money. The platform provides rapid market creation without cash payouts.
Specs
| Market types | Politics, Sports, Crypto, Economics, Culture, Science · unverified |
|---|---|
| Settles in | Mana (virtual play currency) · unverified |
| Trading fees | 10% x amount_traded x (1 - max_price_per_share_bought) · unverified |
| Resolution source | Market creator resolution subject to community guidelines · unverified |
| Available in the US | Yes · unverified |
| KYC required | No · unverified |
| Regulated venue | No · unverified |
| Market topics | News, Politics, Tech & AI, Science, Economics, Personal goals · unverified |
| Mobile app | Yes · unverified |
Not disclosed by the provider: Chains, Liquidity rewards.
Data from the provider's website and public sources. Fees and availability change; confirm on the official site before you sign up.
Key features
Open market creation
Any account holder can launch a custom prediction question across news, politics, tech, science, or personal goals using virtual Mana.
Automated market maker
The platform calculates dynamic probability pricing and distributes shares through an automated liquidity mechanism.
Quest reward system
Users build Mana balances through daily prediction streaks offering 5 to 25 Mana, market-creation quests, and referral bonuses.
Formulaic fee pricing
Binary yes-or-no trades incur a formulaic fee calculated as 10% times the traded amount times one minus the maximum share purchase price.
Public calibration tracking
Manifold aggregates site-wide predictive probability data against historical event resolutions on a dedicated platform calibration page.
Inside Manifold
Prediction Markets
The core trading interface where users buy and sell outcome shares on politics, science, news, and custom questions using Mana.
Create a Market
A publishing tool that lets any registered user draft resolution criteria and launch custom forecasting questions.
Quests
An incentive dashboard rewarding users with extra Mana for daily prediction streaks, sharing questions, and creating weekly markets.
Referrals
A referral program that awards 1,000 Mana to existing users when a invited friend registers through their link.
Manifold screenshots
What users say about Manifold
User sentiment leans positive, with praise focusing on the enjoyable play-money prediction format, engaging community, and clean interface. However, several users express frustration with app bugs and poorly resolved markets.
Top goods
In their own words
“Social gambling for smart people It’s a great place to become better informed by the world because reality will slap you down when you’re wrong. And seeing a huge positive price swing on risky prediction bets is quite the thrill, despite no real money/stakes involved, at least for me.”
“Fun and informative First of all this app is really well made. It’s intuitive, responsive, and aesthetically excellent. I’m really glad that betting markets have gotten the development team and user base that they deserve. I hope it continues to grow!”
“Horrible, Glitchy Interface The layout is very unintuitive and far too busy to find things easily. It’s also quite buggy. Several times I have put time and energy into creating a question, only to have the question vanish into thin air, leaving me frustrated and not wanting to engage with this app.”
“Improperly resolved markets I'm new to Manifold markets but already I have had the majority of the markets I bet in resolve improperly.”
Based on 100 Reddit posts and comments, 28 App Store reviews from the last 12 months, checked Oct 23, 2026. These are posts by users on other sites, not reviews submitted on CryptoReview.
User reviews
No user reviews yet. Have you used Manifold? Share your experience below.
Funding and investors
$1.8MTotal raised
2Rounds
3Investors
FAQ
Who founded Manifold?
Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen, Stephen Grugett, and James Grugett. Stephen Grugett is the company's chief executive officer.
What fees does Manifold charge?
Account registration is free and includes 1,000 complimentary Mana. On yes/no markets, trading fees equal 10% multiplied by the traded amount and one minus the maximum price per share bought.
Can US users trade on Manifold?
Yes, Manifold is accessible to users in the United States without restrictions. Because it operates as a social prediction game using virtual play money, it does not require mandatory identity verification.
Does Manifold have a crypto token or run on a blockchain?
Manifold uses an internal virtual currency called Mana rather than a tradable token. All trading occurs on its centralized platform.
Can you withdraw real money from Manifold?
Standard Mana cannot be converted into cash. The platform has run sweepstakes games where Sweepcash can be redeemed via PayPal or bank transfer with a 5% fee and a $10 minimum withdrawal.
How are markets resolved on Manifold?
Markets are typically resolved by the user who created the question according to their stated criteria. Resolutions are subject to community guidelines.
Latest from Manifold on X
Abdul El-Sayed now has a 80% chance to win according to Manifold traders
Mike Rogers thinks he's ahead though
Mike Rogers thinks he's ahead though
Dwarkesh tweeted this out in 2024 and traders went crazy for literal years trying to figure out who could possibly be bigger than Elon Musk, or Dario Amodei.
...It turned out to just be his favorite author, which makes a lot of sense in hindsight. https://t.co/ZnnQlnQjez
...It turned out to just be his favorite author, which makes a lot of sense in hindsight. https://t.co/ZnnQlnQjez
🔵Talarico 51%
🔴Paxton 43%
5% Undecided
Latest poll from 254 Labs/YouGov (Oct 21-26)
Traders now give Talarico an all-time high 67% chance of victory. Market link below
🔴Paxton 43%
5% Undecided
Latest poll from 254 Labs/YouGov (Oct 21-26)
Traders now give Talarico an all-time high 67% chance of victory. Market link below
Will this reporting be enough to hurt Mary Peltola's (D) campaign? Some early votes have already been cast.
Right now traders have it at 30% chance Dan Sullivan (R) wins reelection. Market link in comments
Right now traders have it at 30% chance Dan Sullivan (R) wins reelection. Market link in comments
Recent public posts from @ManifoldMarkets, shown as published. Not reviewed or endorsed by CryptoReview.
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