CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange offering binary event contracts settled in US dollars
KYC requiredPolitics · Sports +4OtherAvailable in the US
PredictIt
US-regulated political prediction market operating under CFTC oversight since 2014
3.2/ 5
Our score
Fair
Market types
PoliticsEconomics
Settles in
USD
Trading fees
10% fee on profits and 5% fee on withdrawals
Available in the US
Yes
Regulated venue
Yes
KYC required
Yes
What is PredictIt?
PredictIt is a centralized real-money prediction market focused on political, policy, and macroeconomic event contracts. Established as an educational forecasting initiative, the platform lets participants trade binary Yes and No shares on elections, legislative outcomes, and appointments.
Corporate structure and background
PredictIt launched in November 2014 as an academic project of Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, supported by Aristotle, Inc., a political software and compliance company based in Washington, D.C. Aristotle president Dean Aristotle Phillips serves as founder and president of PredictIt, while Aristotle founder John Aristotle Phillips serves as co-founder. Operations are managed out of Washington, D.C., supported by a core team of approximately 8 staff members.
Platform mechanics and contract settlement
Unlike decentralized prediction protocols, PredictIt operates entirely off-chain using traditional fiat custody and centralized settlement. Contracts trade via a continuous double auction, where share prices range between $0.01 and $0.99. When an event resolves, winning shares pay out $1.00 while losing shares expire worthless. Contract resolutions are determined using defined public sources and official election results rather than decentralized oracles.
Fee structure and user requirements
PredictIt charges an earnings fee of 10% on gross profits exceeding the initial stake. In addition, user withdrawals carry a 5% processing fee. Access is restricted to United States citizens, and all accounts require full identity verification (KYC) before depositing funds or trading.
Regulatory track record and legal challenges
The platform operated under a CFTC no-action letter from November 2014 until August 2022, when the CFTC rescinded the letter and ordered open contracts to be liquidated. PredictIt and Aristotle challenged the decision in federal court, securing an injunction from the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in January 2023. In July 2025, PredictIt and the CFTC reached a revised agreement that raised single-contract investment limits from $850 to $3,500 and removed the previous 5,000-trader ceiling per market. By September 2025, the platform secured approval to operate as a fully regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse.
Platform limitations and counterparty risks
Traders face counterparty exposure because account balances remain in custodial bank accounts rather than self-custody wallets. The 10% fee on winning contracts combined with a 5% cash-out fee presents significant friction compared to decentralized venues. Contract limits also cap single-position sizes at $3,500, restricting large-scale positioning.
Founders
Dean Aristotle PhillipsFounder and President
President of political software company Aristotle, Inc.
John Aristotle PhillipsCo-Founder and CEO
Founder and CEO of political software company Aristotle, Inc.
Best for:US political election tradersTraders requiring regulated US venuesRetail fiat event speculators
Pros and cons
Pros
- Operates as a CFTC-approved derivatives exchange and clearinghouse
- Deep liquidity on United States political and election markets
- Direct bank account deposits and fiat settlement in US dollars
- Track record spanning over a decade since November 2014
Cons
- Charges a 10% fee on profits plus a 5% fee on all withdrawals
- Single-contract positions are restricted to a maximum of $3,500
- Strictly limited to US citizens with mandatory identity verification
- Custodial structure exposes user funds to centralized platform counterparty risk
Our review
3.2/5
Fair
PredictIt offers legal, regulated political event contracts for US traders, but high withdrawal fees and rigid position caps limit its appeal for high-volume participants.
PredictIt is a centralized prediction market focused on political outcomes and government policy. Founded in November 2014 as an academic project between Victoria University of Wellington and Aristotle, Inc., the platform operates from Washington, D.C. under founder Dean Aristotle Phillips and CEO John Aristotle Phillips. Rather than using crypto rails, blockchain tokens, or decentralized oracles, PredictIt runs entirely in fiat currency through an order book format using continuous double auctions.
Trading is limited to verified United States citizens. PredictIt requires mandatory identity verification (KYC) before users can trade shares priced between $0.01 and $0.99. The site has deep historical liquidity for American election cycles, logging 250 million shares traded in 2019 alone. However, operational restrictions exist. While an agreement in July 2025 lifted the old 5,000-trader-per-market restriction and raised single-contract investment limits from $850 to $3,500, the platform still restricts the scale of individual positions.
Fee structures represent PredictIt's steepest trade-off. The venue charges a 10% fee on net profits earned from winning investments, alongside a 5% fee on all fiat withdrawals. Resolution relies on central administrative rulings rather than decentralized oracle voting, which avoids smart contract risks but leaves settlement entirely in the operator's hands.
Regulatory friction has also shaped its trajectory. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) revoked PredictIt's long-standing no-action letter in August 2022, ordering open markets closed. PredictIt and Aristotle challenged the decision in court, securing an injunction in January 2023 before obtaining formal approval to operate as a regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse in September 2025. PredictIt suits retail political watchers who focus on compliant, domestic US access over large transaction sizes. Those seeking crypto collateral or permissionless global access should choose alternatives.
Sources (1)
Specs
| Market types | Politics, Economics · unverified |
|---|---|
| Settles in | USD · unverified |
| Trading fees | 10% fee on profits and 5% fee on withdrawals · unverified |
| Available in the US | Yes · unverified |
| KYC required | Yes · unverified |
| Regulated venue | Yes · unverified |
| Market topics | US Elections, Congressional Votes, Presidency, Financial Indicators · unverified |
Not disclosed by the provider: Chains, Resolution source, Mobile app, Liquidity rewards.
Data from the provider's website and public sources. Fees and availability change; confirm on the official site before you sign up.
Key features
Binary event contracts
Trades execute via continuous double auctions with Yes and No shares priced between $0.01 and $0.99, settling at $1.00 upon verified resolution.
Position limit framework
Enforces a $3,500 investment cap per contract, expanded from the original $850 limit under CFTC terms.
Centralized fiat settlement
Clears and settles trades in US dollars without cryptocurrency wallets or blockchain transactions.
Official outcome verification
Resolves contracts using verified government declarations, certified election returns, and official administrative records.
Uncapped market participation
Supports open participation without the historical 5,000-trader ceiling per event market.
Inside PredictIt
PredictIt Event Contracts
The core continuous double auction market where participants buy and sell binary shares priced from $0.01 to $0.99 on political and financial outcomes.
PredictIt screenshots
What users say about PredictIt
User feedback is mixed and very limited, with reports mentioning both completed payouts and difficulties withdrawing funds.
In their own words
“And then try to get your money out. Here is the result of my third attempt. Same as before, a nice email, followed by no deposit made to my bank account a month later, and same balance still in my account: We are processing your request to withdraw funds from your PredictIt account in the amount of…”
“Predictit.org already paid out....”
Based on 2 Reddit posts and comments from the last 12 months, checked Oct 23, 2026. These are posts by users on other sites, not reviews submitted on CryptoReview.
User reviews
No user reviews yet. Have you used PredictIt? Share your experience below.
FAQ
Who founded PredictIt?
PredictIt was launched in November 2014 by Dean Aristotle Phillips and John Aristotle Phillips through Aristotle, Inc. as an educational project with Victoria University of Wellington.
What fees does PredictIt charge?
PredictIt charges a 10% fee on profits exceeding the original investment and a 5% fee on withdrawals.
Is PredictIt available in the United States?
Yes, PredictIt is available exclusively to US citizens, who must complete full identity verification before trading.
Does PredictIt have a crypto token or run on a blockchain?
No, PredictIt does not use a crypto token or any blockchain network, settling all balances directly in US dollars.
Is PredictIt regulated?
PredictIt won CFTC approval to expand operations as a regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse in September 2025 after previously operating under an academic no-action letter.
What is the maximum investment limit on PredictIt?
Under an agreement reached in July 2025, PredictIt caps investments at $3,500 per contract.
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